:: MIS Insights ::

A barrel of oil costs an average of US$75 dollars right now. With more and more energy-dependent industries sprouting left and right, the price of such limited and elastic good has nowhere to go but up. Businessweek speculates over what could happen once this black gold hits a US$100 per barrel. When it does happen, what could be in store for the Philippines?

In my opinion, a 33% increase ($75 -> $100) in oil prices can mean the end of the world for the Philippines.

The Book Says: Once oil prices increase, an inevitable rise in transportation fare will trigger an avalanche of price increases in the basic commodities of man. According to Economics 101, consumer spending will decrease, revenues will drop, businesses will get killed and ultimately, the economy will go down. Theoretically.

I Say: However, that’s nothing we haven’t experiencd before. Gas prices have doubled in the past two years but Filipinos are still standing in the ring. I think this is because Filipinos are like cockroaches. You can throw Filipinos in any working condition or let him/her engage in the most inhumane activities but they’d still find a way to get through. Whether it’s uncanny adaptation skills or the inability to respond otherwise to the situation, Filipinos have proven to be a resilient race - thanks in part to centuries of colonization and the teachings of our passive Christian heritage. [I say this part in behalf of the majority of the Filipinos. On the other hand, I do recognize that not every Filipino is a Christian.]

The Book Says: Social unrest will increase. Protests of the following flavors will show up:

• Unemployment woes due to the death of businesses
• Requests for wage increase to offset the avalanche of price increases
• Inadequacy of the government, standard operating procedure

Unfortunately, this does nothing but discourage investors from dealing with us. As such, the government will be prompted to raise tax rates again to compensate for the decrease in the country’s ca$h flow.

I Say: Why are people dependent on the government to provide us with what we do not have? I think Filipinos have grown too fond of looking for what they do not have. We are too much of a Dona Victorina to realize that we have many opportunities / blessings right in front of us.

For instance, being in a capitalistic nation with a democratic government does have its perks despite the bullcrap that we have to put up with. There is no rule prohibiting people from setting up their own businesses or practices. Why wait to be employed, when one can employ themselves? In this way, not only did you get a job, but you can also help someone else by employing them! Imagine if everyone thought like that…

The article at Businessweek talked about what could happen to the major players in the global economy - where, obviously, the Philippines wasn’t included. Why? Because Filipinos want to be Bosses, but not employers. Can you spot the difference?

I hope we don’t allow the cockroaches to be gassed first at US$100 before we do something about the situation. Let’s do what we have to do to save the cockroaches. And let’s do it now.